Proliferation Risks in the Persian Gulf and the Prospects for Chinese Nuclear Diplomacy
22 February 2024
Ludovica Castelli
Special Report – Summary:
China has significantly increased its diplomatic and economic presence in the Middle East in the past decade, with the Persian Gulf as the focus of its regional attention. Recently, China’s role as a regional mediator reached a new level when it brokered a normalization deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia. China appears keen to build on this diplomatic success. But doing so will require grappling with the ongoing threat of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East and the impact that threat perceptions have on diplomatic and security ties.
The region remains on the brink of a significant proliferation crisis, owing to Iran’s continued non-compliance with its obligations under the JCPOA. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are pursuing domestic civil nuclear programs. This report seeks to examine whether China is poised to take on more responsibility for the proliferation risks in the region as it advances its own diplomatic and commercial interests. It also explores how China might engage Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE as a potential non-proliferation leader and as a commercial partner in the development of their civil nuclear programs.
