EXPERT OPINIONS – US-Russia Strategic Stability Dialogue: Why It’s Good to Talk
The symbolism of the two-leading nuclear-armed states recognising the dangers of a more complex and perhaps dangerous global nuclear order is significant, and neither party will lose anything by seeking to better understand the potential flashpoints and pathways that could lead to conflict and even the use of nuclear weapons in the years ahead, writes Valdai Club expert
Cameron Hunter Presents Paper on "Bernard Brodie's Strategic Theory in the Third Nuclear Age"
Dr Cameron Hunter presented at NATO’s defence college on 7th July 2021. The event was the NATO Defence College’s Early-Career Nuclear Strategists Workshop (https://www.ndc.nato.int/news/news.php?icode=1531)
His paper was titled “Bernard Brodie’s Strategic Theory in the Third Nuclear Age.” It highlighted Brodie’s arguments that technological change does not inevitably demand certain policy choices. The workshop format meant that Cameron received valuable feedback from senior scholars and practitioners from the nuclear community.
Olamide SAmuel "Agency, Africa and the Atom" (Inkstick may 2021)
As part of The Third Nuclear Age project, Olamide in conjunction with the Managing the Atom project are reinvestigating African engagement with the global nuclear order.
Dr Olamide Samuel
Western-centric policymaking and scholarship tend to overlook the continent in discourse about the global nuclear order. Yet, upon closer investigation we find that African narratives, identities, and aspirations have had significant impact on the nuclear order from the Bandung conference, all the way to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons.
Earlier this year, Olamide held a seminar at Harvard’s Belfer Center on ‘Agency, Africa and the Atom’, where the implications of the ‘single story’ of the African contribution to nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament was discussed at length. This was followed by a Belfer Center panel discussion in March. Titled ‘Africa and the Atom: Rethinking African Agency in the Global Nuclear Order’, Olamide led a panel of experts in an in-depth conversation on the African nuclear narratives. The panelists were: Dr Hassan Elbahtimy (Kings College London), Dr Toni Haastrup (University of Stirling), Dr David Otwoma (Nuclear Regulatory Agency, Kenya) abd Dr Joelien Pretorius (University of the Western Cape)
The Inkstick special forum ‘Africa and the Atomic Bomb’, moves the conversation further, and features reflections from both the panellists and invited participants:
By Andrew Futter, Professor of International Politics at the University of Leicester, UK. 15 February 2021
This work is funded by the European Research Council grant number: 866155. For more on the Third Nuclear Age research project see: https://thethirdnuclearage.com.
Seventy-five years after two nuclear bombs were dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, there appears to be a recognition in both academic literature and policymaking circles that a “new nuclear era” could be upon us. This shift is being driven by a mixture of political, normative and technological dynamics, which together are challenging the thinking and frameworks upon which global nuclear order is based, the way nuclear stability is maintained, and the nature of nuclear risks. We can think of this as the start of a Third Nuclear Age.
For sure, characterising nuclear history into “nuclear ages” (a first nuclear age is said to have existed during the Cold War and focussed on the US-Soviet arms race, and a second nuclear age that focussed on regional proliferation and nuclear terrorism in the years that followed) is historically imperfect and overly Western-centric notion. But using such constructs help focus attention on the most pressing problems and risks we face, and hopefully prevents us from sleep-walking unprepared into a more precarious and uncertain chapter in our nuclear story.
Arguably the most prominent feature of the Third Nuclear Age is the impact and importance of “disruptive technologies”. Of course, the influence of military technological developments upon nuclear order is not new, but today the challenge is different because it is a whole suite of weapons and enabling technologies, many of which are non-nuclear, intangible and dual use, and at the same time a transformation in the nuclear information space. It is also an inherently global phenomenon.
The incorporation of Artificial Intelligence into nuclear planning, possible uses of Computer Network Operations (cyber) across the nuclear realm, 3D printing, the rise of non-nuclear counter-space capabilities, moves towards full-spectrum missile defence, uninhabited weapons systems, quantum computing, advances in remote sensing, tracking and the development of long-range precision conventional weapons (including hypersonic missiles), as well as a nuclear real-time digitised nuclear ecosystem, all create different pressures for stable deterrence relationships, secure-second strike forces, escalation, crisis management and proliferation.
The Third Nuclear Age also seems set to be characterised by the weakening of previous international arms control mechanisms and norms of nuclear restraint. Part of this is a recognition that many of the treaties and negotiating bodies established in the First and Second Nuclear Ages are either under pressure and don’t reflect the current nuclear reality (the Non-Proliferation Treaty), risk falling away (the Treaty on Open Skies), have been badly damaged (the “Iran deal”), or in the case of the INF Treaty, which helped bringing stability to Europe for a generation, have been abandoned altogether. The recent decision to extent New START is welcome, but it is less clear what will follow in five years’ time.
Some of this erosion can be explained by the impact of new military capabilities and rekindled geopolitical rivalries, but it is also a reflection of what appears to be a growing nuclear apathy among global publics and policymakers. This in turn may be contributing to what some have mooted as a withering of the nuclear taboo (and the return of warfighting and aggressive nuclear rhetoric), and a general disinterest in nuclear issues as an existential threat to humanity more broadly.
While we may still be living in a predominantly US-led nuclear world, the Third Nuclear Age will be far more geographically interlinked and interdependent, whereby actions or developments in one region will have global implications. Indeed, nuclear balances and risks in the Middle East, South and Northeast Asia will be on a par if not exceeding the historical focus on the Euro-Atlantic. Consequently, we must move to adjust our theoretical and conceptual nuclear frameworks, and the largely Western and Euro-Atlantic-focussed arms control and governance architectures, to account for this.
At the moment, all nuclear-armed states are modernising and, in some cases, expanding their nuclear and strategic non-nuclear capabilities, which suggests nuclear weapons may be becoming more rather than less important in international politics. It also suggests that we have probably reached the end to the 30-year trend of reducing global nuclear stockpiles, at least for the time being. This may even have been compounded by the Nuclear Ban Treaty, which seems to have further widened the fissures and differences between the nuclear haves and have-nots rather than creating a viable pathway to achieving nuclear reductions.
Thus, the Third Nuclear Age will be conceptually and materially different from the two nuclear ages that preceded it and require a concerted global reengagement with the challenge of ensuring nuclear peace. Consequently, new, innovative and perhaps flexible frameworks and mechanisms of managing nuclear risks will be required as we go forward.
This may look daunting considering the clear complications of pursuing arms control for disruptive technologies, particularly given their very different nature to what we have experienced in the past, and especially in such an unconducive and fractious geopolitical climate. The task is not made any easier by the fact it will also involve seeking to reengage global public opinion and the attention of policymakers in an environment where the challenges of climate change and most recently the COVID-19 pandemic continue to take centre stage. But the world has faced similar challenges before, including during times of heightened geopolitical tension and transition, and determined thinking about risk reduction, informal mechanisms of restraint, different types of confidence building mechanisms, and education across all levels of society, can help to prepare us what seems likely to be a more dangerous nuclear world as we move into the Third Nuclear Age.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in the article are of the author and do not necessarily represent the institute’s policy.
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 11 February 2021
Abstract
Three decades after what is widely referred to as the transition from a First to a Second Nuclear Age, the world stands on the cusp of a possible Third Nuclear Age where the way that we conceptualise the central dynamics of the nuclear game will change again. This paradigm shift is being driven by the growth and spread of non-nuclear technologies with strategic applications and by a shift in thinking about the sources of nuclear threats and how they should be addressed, primarily, but not solely, in the United States. Recent scholarship has rightly identified a new set of challenges posed by the development of strategic non-nuclear weaponry (SNNW). But the full implications of this transformation in policy, technology and thinking for the global nuclear order as a whole have so far been underexplored. To remedy this, we look further ahead to the ways in which current trends, if taken to their logical conclusion, have the capacity to usher in a new nuclear era. We argue that in the years ahead, SNNW will increasingly shape the nuclear order, particularly in relation to questions of stability and risk. In the Third Nuclear Age, nuclear deployments, postures, balances, arms control, non-proliferation policy, and the prospects for disarmament, will all be shaped as much by developments in SNNW capabilities as by nuclear weapons. Consequently, we advocate for an urgent reassessment of the way nuclear order and nuclear risks are conceptualised as we confront the challenges of a Third Nuclear Age.
Three quarters of a century after the first atomic device was exploded in the New Mexico desert, and three decades after the end of the Cold War, there appears to be a recognition in both academic literature and policymaking circles that a “new nuclear era” could be upon us.
This shift is being driven by a mixture of political, normative and technological drivers, which when taken together, are challenging the central axioms and apparatus upon which global nuclear order is based and nuclear stability is maintained, and at the same time changing the nature of nuclear risks. We can think of this as the start of a Third Nuclear Age.
The drivers of this Third Nuclear Age include: the emergence of-often non-nuclear and intangible-disruptive technologies that are creating a plethora of new nuclear dangers and pathways to nuclear use; a gradual realisation that many of the central mechanisms of global nuclear governance are coming under significant pressure or even being eroded; a reduction in interest in nuclear weapons as a global existential risk amongst both elites and the public; and the fact that we are witnessing a return to great power nuclear politics, dangerous rhetoric and aggressive posturing, at the same time as the global nuclear order is becoming genuinely multipolar and more complex.
Given this considerable flux, it is essential that we consider the implications of this transition into what portends to be a distinctly new era of nuclear politics. At the very least we need to act now to reassess the continued validity of established ideas and frameworks and their ability to keep us safe in this more complex and potentially dangerous Third Nuclear Age.
For sure, characterising nuclear history into “nuclear ages” (a first nuclear age is said to have existed during the Cold War and focussed on the US-Soviet arms race, and a second nuclear age that focussed on regional proliferation and nuclear terrorism in the years that followed) is historically imperfect and can be accused of being an overly Western-centric notion. But using such constructs helps focus the mind on the most pressing problems and risks we face, and hopefully prevents us from sleep-walking unprepared into a more precarious and uncertain chapter in our nuclear story.
The argument here is that the unfolding milieu of changes in the global nuclear space mean that we need to reorient our focus again, away from an overtly post-Cold War, post-9-11 focus. Thus, it is useful to think of the current moment as the beginning of a distinct Third Nuclear Age, were the rules, challenges and central dynamics of the global nuclear game will be different from that which came before.
Perhaps the most prominent feature of the Third Nuclear Age is the impact and importance of new “disruptive technologies”. Of course, the influence of military technological developments upon nuclear order is not new, but today the challenge is different because it is a whole suite of weapons and enabling technologies, many of which are non-nuclear, intangible and dual use, and at the same time a transformation in the nuclear information space. It is also an inherently global phenomenon.
The incorporation of Artificial Intelligence and Automation into nuclear planning, possible uses of Computer Network Operations across the nuclear realm, 3D printing, the rise of non-nuclear counter-space capabilities, moves towards full-spectrum missile defence, the possibility of unmanned weapons systems, quantum computing, advances in remote sensing, tracking and the development of long-range precision conventional weapons (including hypersonic missiles), as well as a nuclear real-time digitised nuclear ecosystem, all create different pressures for stable deterrence relationships, secure-second strike forces, escalation, crisis management and proliferation.
The Third Nuclear Age also seems set to be characterised by the erosion or at least weakening of previous international arms control mechanisms and traditional norms of nuclear restraint. Part of this is a worrying recognition that many of the treaties and negotiating bodies established in the First and Second Nuclear Ages are either under pressure (the Non-Proliferation Treaty), risk falling away (New START and the Treaty on Open Skies), have been badly damaged (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – the “Iran deal”), or in the case of the INF Treaty, which helped bringing stability to Europe for a generation, have been abandoned altogether.
Some of this erosion can be explained by the impact of new military capabilities and rekindled geopolitical rivalries, but it is also a reflection of what appears to be a growing nuclear apathy among global publics and perhaps also amongst many policymakers. This in turn may be contributing to what some have mooted as a withering of the nuclear taboo (and the return of warfighting and aggressive nuclear rhetoric), and a general disinterest in nuclear issues as an existential threat to humanity more broadly.
Paradoxically, this may even have been compounded by the 2017 Nuclear Ban Treaty, which seems likely to further widen the fissures and differences between the nuclear haves and have-nots rather than creating a viable pathway forward to reduce nuclear risks.
The final piece of the Third Nuclear Age puzzle is the very public return of great power nuclear politics, especially rhetoric and posturing, but also nuclear modernisation and vertical proliferation, and a genuine move towards a multipolar nuclear world. For sure, the nuclear order essentially become multipolar in the 1950s and 1960s as the UK and then France joined the nuclear club, but today it is clear that the nuclear balances and risks in the Middle East, South and Northeast Asia are on a par if not exceeding the historical focus on the Euro-Atlantic.
Thus, and while we may still be living in a predominantly US-led nuclear world, this nuclear order is now far more geographically interlinked and interdependent, whereby actions or developments in one region will have truly global implications. Consequently, what happens in other parts of the world is increasingly shaping the overall nuclear picture and we must move to adjust our theoretical and conceptual nuclear frameworks, and the largely Western and Euro-Atlantic-focussed arms control and governance architectures, to account for this.
At the moment, all nuclear-armed states are seeking to modernise and, in some cases, expand their nuclear and advanced/strategic non-nuclear capabilities, which suggests nuclear weapons may be becoming more rather than less important in international politics. It also suggests that we have probably reached the end to the 30-year trend of reducing global nuclear stockpiles, at least for the time being. Indeed, this snapshot of recent history suggests that new, innovative and perhaps flexible frameworks and mechanisms of managing nuclear risks will be required as we go forward into the Third Nuclear Age. The global nuclear order is in a state of flux, with myriad new pressures that need to be understood if we are to continue to safely manage the dangers posed by nuclear weapons.
This Third Nuclear Age will be conceptually and materially different from the two nuclear ages that preceded it and require a concerted global collaborative reengagement with the challenge of ensuring nuclear peace.
The starting point is probably a recognition that we are entering into a different type of nuclear world, where some (though not all) nuclear risks and challenges have altered and where new thinking and measures will be necessary. This may look daunting considering the clear complications of pursuing arms control for disruptive technologies given their very different nature to what has gone before, especially in such an unconducive and fractious geopolitical climate, and seeking to reengage global public opinion and the attention of policymakers as the challenges of climate change and most recently the COVID-19 pandemic continues to take centre stage.
But the world has faced similar challenges before, including during times of heightened geopolitical tension and transition, and determined thinking about risk reduction, informal mechanisms of restraint, different types of confidence building architectures, and education across all levels of society, can help to prepare us what seems likely to be a more dangerous nuclear world as we move into the Third Nuclear Age.
There aren’t any easy answers to potential risks posed by the AI-Automation-Nuclear nexus, but a starting point has to be a greater understanding of the key concepts and an appreciation of how the deployment of such technologies could play out. In the nuclear realm, and especially now in the increasing digital global nuclear realm, perceptions and the potential for misunderstanding will be as important as reality, writes Andrew Futter, Professor of International Politics at the University of Leicester.
