Third Nuclear Age
Conference

During the “First Nuclear Age,” the confrontation between two nuclear superpowers shaped nuclear policy thinking and practice—including concepts of deterrence as well as systems for arms control and non-proliferation. Much of this thinking persisted after the Cold War, despite the transition from the First Nuclear Age to a “Second Nuclear Age,” which saw changing power dynamics and further nuclear proliferation.

Now, in the “Third Nuclear Age,” unfolding multipolarity combines with advances in “strategic non-nuclear weapons.” This broad term includes advanced delivery vehicles, high-precision strike weapons, and missile defense systems. In addition, new dual-use technologies are finding applications in the nuclear weapons field. In particular, automation, advanced sensors, radars, and space-based technologies improve weapons performance as well as intelligence and early warning capabilities. Growing digitalization of systems enables control and decision-making in real-time. Research and development of nuclear reactor technologies are also advancing, with fourth generation reactors under development, and small-modular reactors designed to be built in factories and shipped to site. The latter may bring new proliferation and diversion challenges.

These technological advancements provide strategic benefits but also harbor significant risks. They have the potential to fuel perceptions of vulnerability and facilitate escalation from a conventional to a nuclear conflict. Nuclear cooperation can help address energy needs, but it can also trigger dual-use and proliferation concerns. Convergence of technologies renders nuclear and non-nuclear capabilities intricately intertwined—a trend that pre-dated current events but is gaining traction in the Third Nuclear Age. It is important to both (a) assess risks posed by such developments from a technical perspective, and (b) gauge policy makers’ perceptions of those risks (merited or not).

The diplomatic structures that maintained stability in previous eras are struggling to adjust to the 21st century. The war in Ukraine and growing geopolitical tensions further cement this deadlock. While the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) remains, the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) continues to face stern challenges. At the onset of this Third Nuclear Age, new thinking and approaches are needed to prevent conflict and increase stability.